What changed

A compliance officer does not need the answer once. They need to know the day it stops being true. An obligation stack is accurate on the morning it is written and starts decaying that afternoon — a deadline passes, a regulator publishes a determination, a transitional period ends — and nothing about the original page announces that it has gone stale.

So this is the page the register exists to keep. Everything else is a snapshot.

One of the changes below moved a firm from at risk of breaching to in breach.

EU ·

The date had been published years in advance, and nothing on the obligation page it affects would have looked any different the following morning. That is the failure this page exists to prevent. 3 further dated triggers are already on the watchlist, the soonest on 30 September 2026.

The log

4 changes recorded since 1 November 2025, newest first. The changes themselves are public — a gazette was published, a deadline passed. What each one means for a firm on the corridor is the assessment, and that is the part that is worth paying for.

  • · EU · high severity

    MiCA transitional period ends. A CASP without authorisation may no longer operate in the EU

    What it means The deadline has passed. This is no longer forthcoming — an unauthorised EU-side counterparty on this corridor is in breach now, not at risk of breaching. Any firm still relying on a grandfathered position is exposed today.

    Legal analysis · affects European Union → South Africa

  • · NA · medium severity

    Afreximbank gives a project update on Walvis Bay fuel hub at a virtual press conference; Namibia Ports Authority confirms plans exist

    What it means Ports authority confirmation establishes the plan exists. It does not establish an approval, a concession, a lease, or a licence. No named agreement in any source.

    Trade press · affects Nigeria → Namibia, Zambia, Botswana

  • · ZA · medium severity

    FSCA reports 533 CASP licence applications received, 310 approved, 17 declined

    What it means Roughly 206 applications are neither approved nor declined. A South African counterparty may therefore be operating while unresolved, which is a different position from licensed and from refused, and is not visible from a licence register alone.

    Law firm analysis · affects European Union → South Africa

  • · NG · low severity

    Dangote announces intent to build fuel distribution infrastructure serving Southern Africa

    What it means Commercial announcement, not a regulatory instrument. Creates no obligation and changes no perimeter. Recorded because it dates the corridor.

    Trade press · affects Nigeria → Namibia, Zambia, Botswana

What is being watched

Dated triggers, soonest first. Listed because a date you do not know about is the expensive kind, and because a comment deadline is one of the few moments a firm can affect the rule rather than only comply with it.

  • · fixed

    Close of comment, draft Crypto Asset Manual

    Fixes the crypto overlay position on the South African leg. A filed comment is also a public credential.

  • · tbc

    Bank of Namibia exchange control position on fuel import settlement

    CMA alignment is the highest-priority open question and fuel settlement volume would test it

  • · fixed

    Corridor review — has any instrument been granted

    Fixes whether this corridor has an obligation basis or remains an announcement

When each corridor is next reviewed

A review date is a commitment, not a plan. It is the date by which every obligation on that corridor is re-checked against its source whether or not anything appeared to move — because an instrument that was quietly amended does not announce itself.

How this log is kept

  • Nothing is edited. A correction supersedes the row it corrects and both stay retrievable, because a log that quietly rewrites itself evidences nothing.
  • Every entry cites the document it came from and the date that document was read. An entry without a source is a claim, and the register does not publish claims.
  • A commercial announcement is recorded and marked as one. It creates no obligation and moves no perimeter — it is logged because it dates the corridor, not because it binds anybody.
  • No change recorded on a corridor is not the same as nothing having happened. It means the sources watched for that corridor have not moved since the date shown against it.

How a figure here is made · Claims that did not survive checking